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A new analysis of Census 2010 “participation rates” through March 30 found that census tracts with higher Hard to Count (HTC) scores have been running about 10 to 20 percentage points lower than tracts with lower scores, regardless of their location. The analysis was done by the Center for Urban Research (CUR), CUNY Graduate Center in coordination with the Funders Census Initiative (FCI). Detailed results are provided at CUR's website.
Hard to count scores are a good predictor of Census participation to date
“The Census Bureau’s hard-to-count scoring system seems to be a good predictor, so far, of likelihood of initial response to the census,” observed Steven Romalewski, director of the CUNY Mapping Service at the Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center. Mr. Romalewski noted that census tracts in urban areas are posting much lower participation rates than those located in non-urban and other non-urbanized areas of the country as of March 30 (43% median participation v. 49% and 54%, respectively).
Race/ethnicity also correlated with Census participation in the first week
The analysis also examined correlations between county-level race/ethnicity patterns and participation rates, finding that in the first week of Census returns, participation rates have tended to be higher in counties with a larger percent of the population that is white, while participation rates tend to be lower in counties with a greater percentage of blacks and Latinos.
The analysis includes maps showing the daily progress of response rates over the first weeks of the Mail-out/Mail-back operation, which started with advance letters on March 8 and covers most American households.
HTC online map updated
The Center's Census 2010 Hard-To-Count Interactive Map [www.CensusHardToCountMaps.org] was also updated with the latest participation rate data, in a way that can be queried and sorted to zoom in on the worst performing tracts in any county nationwide.
For more information, contact:
Steven Romalewski, CUNY SRomalewski@gc.cuny.edu)
Terri Ann Lowenthal, FCI TerriAnn2K@aol.com)
